Generative AI generates tricky choices for managers

Transformational technologies can be very trying

　　THE REMARKABLE capabilities of generative artificial intelligence (AI) are clear the moment you try it. But remarkableness is also a problem for managers. Working out what to do with a new technology is harder when it can affect so many activities; when its adoption depends not just on the abilities of machines but also on pesky humans; and when it has some surprising flaws.

　　生成式人工智能（AI）的非凡能力，你一试就明白。但对于管理者来说，能力非凡也是个问题。当一项新技术可以影响众多活动，而且采用该技术并不仅仅取决于机器的能力，也取决于麻烦的人类，况且该技术还有些出人意料的缺陷时，要弄清楚该如何应对它的难度就更大了。

　　Study after study rams home the potential of large language models (LLMs), which power AIs like ChatGPT, to improve all manner of things. LLMs can save time, by generating meeting summaries, analysing data or drafting press releases. They can sharpen up customer service. They cannot put up IKEA bookshelves—but nor can humans.

　　一项又一项的研究充分表明，ChatGPT等AI背后的大语言模型（LLM）具有改善各种事务的潜力。LLM能够生成会议纪要、分析数据或起草新闻稿，从而节省时间。它们能够提升客户服务。它们不能组装宜家的书架——但人类也一样不行。

"study after study " 一项又一项的研究
rams home 充分说明;使透彻理解;
power 在句中作动词，表示“驱动，推动，促进”
"all manner of things" 各种事物，各种各样的事情
sharpen v.锐化;（使）提高，改善;(使感觉或感情)加强，加重，变得更明显;使尖锐;使明朗;

"sharpen up" 提高，完善
draft [dræft] n.草稿;草案;汇票;草图 adj.正在起草中的，草拟的;草图的;以草稿形式的;初步画出或（写出）的;

v.起草;草拟;抽调;选派;
press release n.(向媒体发布的)新闻稿;

release “放出”的含义可以引申为：放松；免除；释放；宣泄；发行；排放。新闻也属于放出的东西，可以用这个代指。

　　AI can even boost innovation. Karan Girotra of Cornell University and his co-authors compared the idea-generating abilities of the latest version of ChatGPT with those of students at an elite university. A lone human can come up with about five ideas in 15 minutes; arm the human with the AI and the number goes up to 200. Crucially, the quality of these ideas is better, at least judged by purchase-intent surveys for new product concepts. Such possibilities can paralyse bosses; when you can do everything, it’s easy to do nothing.

　　AI甚至可以促进创新。康奈尔大学的卡兰·吉罗特拉（Karan Girotra）及合著者比较了最新版ChatGPT和一所名牌大学的学生的创意能力。一个人单枪匹马可以在15分钟内想出大约五个创意，配备上一个AI后可以想出200个。关键是这些创意的质量还要更高，至少从新产品概念的购买意向调查来看是这样。这样巨大的可能性反而可能让老板们手足无措：如果你什么都能做，最后很容易什么都没做。

paralyse v.使瘫痪;使麻痹;使不能正常工作;
boost innovation 促进创新
idea-generating abilities 创意能力
elite university 名牌大学
purchase-intent surveys 购买意向调查
product concepts 产品概念

　　LLMs’ ease of use also has pluses and minuses. On the plus side, more applications for generative AI can be found if more people are trying it. Familiarity with LLMs will make people better at using them. Reid Hoffman, a serial AI investor, has a simple bit of advice: start playing with it. If you asked ChatGPT to write a haiku a year ago and have not touched it since, you have more to do.

　　LLM的易用性也是有利有弊。有利的一面是，越多人尝试使用生成式AI，就越能发现它的更多用处。越熟悉LLM，就越懂得如何善用它们。投资了一系列AI项目的里德·霍夫曼（Reid Hoffman）给出了一条简单的建议：先用起来。如果你一年前让ChatGPT写了一首俳句，之后就再没碰过它，那么就该多用用了。

"have pluses and minuses" 有利有弊
applications n. (尤指理论、发现等的)应用，运用;申请;请求;申请表;申请书;施用;涂抹;敷用;
serial [ˈsɪriəl] n.电视连续剧;广播连续剧;杂志连载小说;

adj.连续的;连载的;多次的;顺序排列的;排成系列的;以连续剧形式播出的;
haiku n.俳句(日本传统诗体，三行为一首，通常有17个音节);

　　Familiarity may also counter the human instinct to be wary of automation. A paper by Siliang Tong of Nanyang Technological University and his co-authors that was published in 2021, before generative AI was all the rage, captured this suspicion neatly. It showed that AI-generated feedback improved employee performance more than feedback from human managers. However, disclosing that the feedback came from a machine had the opposite effect: it undermined trust, stoked fears of job insecurity and hurt performance. Exposure to LLMs could soothe concerns.

　　熟悉感也可能对抗人类对自动化的本能的警惕。南洋理工大学的佟思亮及合著者于2021年生成式AI尚未风行之时发表的一篇论文精准地捕获了这种疑惧。该研究表明，AI生成的反馈比人类管理者的反馈更能提高员工的绩效。然而，披露这些反馈来自机器却会产生相反的效果：它破坏了信任，引发了饭碗不保的恐惧，损害了绩效。多接触LLM有可能缓解这些担忧。

be wary of 谨慎的;提防;
all the rage 风靡一时的;时尚;风行一时;风行一时的事物;
"captured this suspicion neatly" 精准地捕获了这种疑惧
neatly adv.整齐地;整洁地；干净地;灵巧地；利索地;恰好地；极好地;
undermine vt.破坏;逐渐削弱(信心、权威等);挖…的墙脚;使逐步减少效力;从根基处破坏;
stoke [stoʊk] v.激起;煽动;给…添加(燃料);

stoke fears 引发恐惧
job insecurity 工作不安全感;工作不稳定;
soothe concerns 缓解担忧
文中最后一段话是给管理者说的，因为他们给员工的反馈有效度远不如AI，所以会有不被员工信任，被AI取代从而丢失工作的风险，还会因此变得工作表现不积极，而如果他们学会善用AI，结合AI可能回缓解这些焦虑。

　　Or not. Complicating things are flaws in the technology. The Cambridge Dictionary has named “hallucinate” as its word of the year, in tribute to the tendency of LLMs to spew out false information. The models are evolving rapidly and ought to get better on this score, at least. But some problems are baked in, according to a new paper by R. Thomas McCoy of Princeton University and his co-authors.

　　但也未必。这项技术的缺陷让事情变得更复杂。剑桥词典将“hallucinate”（幻觉）选为年度热词，它描述的就是LLM胡说八道的倾向。这些模型目前迅速演进，在这方面应该至少会有所改进。但普林斯顿大学的托马斯·麦考伊（R. Thomas McCoy）及合著者新发表的论文显示，有些问题是根深蒂固的。

word of the year 年度热词
"bake" 的原意是烘烤，但在口语和写作中，"baked in" 这个短语通常用来表示某些特性或问题在最初的设计或建立阶段就已经存在，并且难以改变。
spew [spjuː] v.喷出;(使)涌出;呕吐; n.呕吐物;喷出物;
on this score 在这一点上;(尤指)在这个关注点上;

　　Because off-the-shelf models are trained on internet data to predict the next word in an answer on a probabilistic basis, they can be tripped up by surprising things. Get GPT-4, the LLM behind ChatGPT, to multiply a number by 9/5 and add 32, and it does well; ask it to multiply the same number by 7/5 and add 31, and it does considerably less well. The difference is explained by the fact that the first calculation is how you convert Celsius to Fahrenheit, and therefore common on the internet; the second is rare and so does not feature much in the training data. Such pitfalls will exist in proprietary models, too.

　　现有的模型是用互联网数据训练的，在作答时是根据概率来预测下一个单词，因此可能会被意想不到的问题难倒。ChatGPT背后的LLM是GPT-4，让它把一个数乘以1.8再加上32，它算得很准；让它把同样这个数字乘以1.4再加上31，表现就差多了。造成这种差异的原因是，第一种计算是将摄氏度换算为华氏度的方法，因此在互联网上很常见；第二种计算比较罕见，因此在训练数据中很少出现。闭源模型也会存在这样的缺陷。

off-the-shelf adj.从货架直接取下买走的，现成的;非专门设计（或定制）的;
surprising adj.令人惊讶的;奇怪的;令人吃惊的;出人意料的;意想不到的；
feature n.特色;特点;特征;特写，专题节目;正片，故事片;

v.以…为特色;由…主演;占重要地位;起重要作用;以…为主要组成;
on a probabilistic basis 根据概率...
be tripped up by 被...问题难倒
sth does not feature much in ... 在...中很少出现\
pitfall n.陷阱;(尤指)隐患;困难;危险;
proprietary [prəˈpraɪəteri] adj.专有的;专利的;所有的;所有权的;专卖的;专营的;

n.所有权;所有人;所有物;专卖药品;独家制造（及销售）的产品;

　　On top of all this is a practical problem: it is hard for firms to keep track of employees’ use of AI. Confidential data might be uploaded and potentially leak out in a subsequent conversation. Earlier this year Samsung, an electronics giant, clamped down on usage of ChatGPT by employees after engineers reportedly shared source code with the chatbot.

　　除此之外，还有一个现实问题：公司很难跟踪员工使用AI的情况。机密数据可能会被上传，并可能在随后的对话中泄露出去。今年早些时候，电子巨头三星禁止员工使用ChatGPT，因为据称有三星工程师向这个聊天机器人分享了源代码。

"On top of ..." 这个短语表示除了之前提到的所有事情之外，还有另外一个事实或问题。可以理解为“除了”，“更甚者”。
electronics giant 电子巨头
clamp down on 严厉打击;加以控制;遏制
reportedly adv.据说;据报道;据传闻;

　　This combination of superpowers, simplicity and stumbles is a messy one for bosses to navigate. But it points to a few rules of thumb. Be targeted. Some consultants like to talk about the “lighthouse approach”—picking a contained project that has signalling value to the rest of the organisation. Rather than banning the use of LLMs, have guidelines on what information can be put into them. Be on top of how the tech works: this is not like driving a car and not caring what is under the hood. Above all, use it yourself. Generative AI may feel magical. But it is hard work to get right.■

　　能力超凡、使用简单、可能出错，这样的混乱组合让老板难以驾驭。但这也指向了一些经验法则。要有针对性。一些咨询顾问爱谈论“灯塔方法”——选择一个对组织其他部分有指导意义的受控项目。与其禁用LLM，不如制定指引，明确哪些信息可以输入LLM。要了解这项技术的工作原理：它不像开车，不用关心引擎盖下面是什么。最重要的是，要亲自去使用它。生成式AI可能让人感觉神奇，要把它用好却得下苦功夫。