一篇共鸣的博文：https://alexw.substack.com/p/what-i-learned-in-2023
小小年纪，已悟到这个层次，实至名归。
每年年底，我都会写下过去一年的主要经验教训并发送给At the end of every year, I write up the major lessons of the past year and send it to the Scale AIScale AI团队。今年，鉴于人工智能已经成为一个全球性话题，我想广泛地分享它。 team. This year, given the degree to which AI has become a global topic, I wanted to share it broadly.
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专家的自负是一个陷阱。努力获得初学者的心态和新手的能量。The conceit of an expert is a trap. Strive for a beginner’s mind and the energy of a novice.
经验往往是一种诅咒——过去只能轻微地预测未来，每种情况都需要新技术和洞察力。在新的情况下，新手往往具有优势——他们的活力和初学者的心态使他们能够更快地适应。Experience can often be a curse—the past is only mildly predictive of the future, and every scenario requires new techniques and insight. In novel situations, the novice tends to be at an advantage—their vitality and beginner’s mind lend themselves to faster adaptation.
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获胜需要令人难以置信的不适。这不适合胆小的人。Winning requires an incredible level of discomfort. It’s not for the faint of heart.
每个运动员都知道这一点。轻松获胜是一个矛盾的说法。如果你想获胜，就要增强对疼痛的忍耐力。Every athlete knows this. Winning comfortably is an oxymoron. Build pain tolerance if you want to win.
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聚焦是幂律体系中的唯一策略。Focus is the only strategy in a power law regime.
幂律规定，总会有一个异常值比其他一切都重要。如果你正在做的事情确实如此，那么 80% 的战斗就是找到正确的重点。Power laws dictate that there’s always one outlier that will trump everything else in importance. If that’s true about what you’re working on, then 80% of the battle is finding the right thing to focus on.
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建议往往 90% 是错误的，10% 是正确的。Advice tends to be 90% wrong and 10% right.
大多数建议都是严重错误的。但总有一些真理是非常有帮助的。建议的关键是找到有价值的内容。Most advice is horribly wrong. But there are always nuggets of truth which can be extremely helpful. The key to advice is to find the nuggets.
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多产。伟大的人没有一个是懒惰的。Be prolific. No great person was lazy.
历史上每一位伟人都多产得令人难以置信。他们不断地生产、实践、完善。你也不会有什么不同——开始建造吧。Every great human throughout history was incredibly prolific. They were constantly producing, practicing, and perfecting. You will be no different—get building.
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初创公司通过创意重组和进化压力进行创新。他们靠快取胜。大公司必须通过明确且可执行的使命进行创新。他们因正确而获胜。Startups innovate by idea recombination and evolutionary pressure. They win by being fast. Big companies must innovate through a clear and executable mission. They win by being right.
在 2023 年人工智能初创公司大爆炸中，几乎所有人工智能想法都在被尝试。这个达尔文主义的过程将产生一些大赢家。大公司不具备灵活性。2023 年的大公司赢家正在执行多年前制定的计划（早在人工智能炒作周期之前！）——他们是最成功地预测未来的人。In the AI startup big bang of 2023, virtually every AI idea is being tried. This Darwinian process will result in a few big winners. Big companies do not have the luxury of nimbleness. The big company winners of 2023 are executing against plans laid years ago (long before the AI hype cycle!)—they are the ones who most successfully predicted the future.
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动力胜过人力。Momentum trumps manpower.
2023 年人工智能的故事——小团队的动力远远超出了他们的能力。势头是一股强大的力量——利用它，你将势不可挡。The story of AI in 2023—small teams with momentum punched far above their weight. Momentum is a strong force—harness it and you’ll be unstoppable.
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偏执是一种适应性特征。Paranoia is an adaptive trait.
您的治疗师可能会告诉您焦虑是不健康的。但是，按照安迪·格罗夫的说法，只有偏执狂才能生存。Your therapist might tell you it’s unhealthy to be anxious. But, as per Andy Grove, only the paranoid survive.
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当构建未来时，微小的决定会产生巨大的影响。When the future is being built, small decisions have monumental impact.
2030 年，我们将回顾人工智能如何影响人类的许多主要试金石，并认识到它们都是由 2023 年看来微不足道的决定决定的。未来将放大我们今天做出的每一个决定——我们必须明智地行动。In 2030, we will look back at many of the major touchstones of how AI has affected humanity and realize that they were each determined by decisions that seemed small and insignificant in 2023. The future will amplify every decision we make today—we must act wisely.
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为杰出的人而战。每一个杰出的人都是独特环境的产物，他们值得为之奋斗。Fight for exceptional people. Every exceptional person is the product of unique circumstance, and they deserve to be fought for.
杰出的人一起工作是我们最接近点金石的东西。伟大的团队就像真正的炼金术——从无到有地创造出一些东西。为他们而战。这总是值得的。Exceptional people working together is the closest thing we have to a philosopher’s stone. Great teams are akin to true alchemy—creating something from nothing. Fight for them. It’s always worth it.
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未来更多地是由机会主义而非计划来定义的。The future is defined more by opportunism than by planfulness.
机会主义推动了人工智能的每一次重大变革。每周，初创公司、政府或大公司都会采取新的举措，以在这一领域占据一席之地。每一步——监管、放松监管、开源、闭源等等——都是更大的人工智能国际象棋游戏中的一种策略。Opportunism has driven every major AI change. Every week there is another move made by a startup, government, or big company to gain ground in the arena. Every move—regulation, de-regulation, open-sourcing, closed-sourcing, etc.—is a tactic in the larger AI chess game.
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一切有趣的事情只有在最细微的细节中才会显现出来。你必须深入杂草才能发现非凡之处。Everything interesting is only apparent in the finest of details. You have to be deep in the weeds to recognize the extraordinary.
世界会训练你不要研究得太深；它似乎奖励广度而不是深度。事实恰恰相反——非凡的发现来自于极端的深度和对细节的好奇、近乎痴迷的分析。The world will train you to not study things too deeply; it seemingly rewards breadth over depth. The exact opposite is true—extraordinary discoveries come from extreme depth and a curious, borderline obsessive, analysis of fine details.
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专注于复合活动。避免腐朽的追求。Focus on compounding activities. Avoid perishable pursuits.
人类经常会争夺易逝的奖励（地位、名誉等）与复利的奖励（技术、团队等）。如果你避免这个错误，你将在5年以上的时间内势不可挡。Humans often compete over perishable rewards (status, fame, etc.) versus compounding ones (technology, teams, etc.). If you avoid this mistake, you will be unstoppable in 5+ years.
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找到你的超能力，永远不要放弃它们——它们将伴随你一生。Find your superpowers and never let go of them—they will carry you your whole life.
我们经常陷入强化自己弱点的陷阱，而不是加倍发挥自己的优势。如果你的获胜故事不涉及你的超能力，那么它很可能是错误的。我们靠实力取胜，而不是缺乏弱点。We often fall into the trap of shoring up our weaknesses rather than doubling down on our strengths. If your story for how you win does not involve your superpowers, then it is likely wrong. We win through strength, not lack of weakness.
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海市蜃楼的机会总是让人感觉遥不可及。真正的机会会打你的脸。Mirage opportunities always feel just out of reach. Real opportunities slap you in the face.
纯粹的理论使许多聪明人在寻找机会时误入歧途。在实践中，识别真正的机会就像抓住老虎的尾巴一样。它会猛烈而快速地拉动你。Pure theory has led many brilliant minds astray in search of opportunity. In practice, identifying a real opportunity will feel like grabbing a tiger by its tail. It will pull you violently and quickly.
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寻找新的奇迹是人类永不满足的欲望。The search for new miracles is an insatiable human desire.
尽管围绕人工智能和其他突破性技术的进步存在各种潜在担忧，但进步仍在继续。人类永远追求奇迹，我们正处于黄金时代的开始。Despite all of the potential concern surrounding the advancement of AI and other breakthrough technologies, progress rages ahead. Humanity will always pursue miracles, and we are at the start of a golden age.